2027: “Governors’ Coalition: A Bus Without Passengers”

BY IKE ABONYI

_”He who thinks he leads, but has no followers, is only taking a walk.”_ – John C. Maxwell

Across the country, North or South, the 2027 fear is palpable among state governors after realising their coalition lacks the desired followership. They have suddenly found themselves driving a bus without passengers.

Despite the clear message conveyed by Nigerian voters’ electoral performance in 2023, the country’s state governors still haven’t understood that, in authority, control over the state for genuine popular support can deliver a harsh awakening.

Similarly, when governors unite behind an unpopular president, the central question is whether their constituents are uniting with them.

“Governors may stand together in the corridors of power, but the people will express their independent judgment at the ballot box.”

In 2023, Peter Obi, then of the Labour Party, contested without the backing of a councillor, local government chairman, commissioner, governor, minister, or state assembly member. He also had no member of the House of Representatives or senator supporting him. Yet, he achieved an exceptional electoral performance and even prevented several sitting state governors from fulfilling their senatorial ambitions.

Notwithstanding this record, all Nigerian state governors, with the possible exception of Alex Otti of Abia, Seyi Makinde of Oyo and Bala Mohammed of Bauchi states, have chosen, ahead of 2027, to place all their political hopes in Bola Tinubu’s rigging basket. What a gamble.

In taking this position, they were not seeking to gauge the public mood; instead, they were pursuing state power, having observed how it served President Tinubu in 2023. Why would they act otherwise? In 2023, Tinubu did not directly control the critical actors in national elections. INEC, DSS, the judiciary, and the police—his resources alone shaped the contest, whereas today, the leaders of these institutions are all members of his tribe, while he commands the full powers of the state and has access to even greater resources, which they are already deploying to hinder the opposition, with the judiciary and security agencies offering their support. But notwithstanding that, there is still panic in their camp because they do not have the people on their side. In a democratic setting, the real power is not guns, money, or state power but the people.

What they are yet to appreciate is that, in 2027, state power may influence candidate selection, campaign logistics, and political alliances, but the final electoral outcome will depend on whether governors can genuinely align their governance with the public mood—or whether popular sentiment will once again circumvent the state machinery at the polling units in favour of Peter Obi. Perhaps that explains the panic among the governors ahead of 2027, even with all the arsenals currently at their disposal.

It is therefore erroneous to assume, as Nigeria approaches the 2027 general election, that the endorsement of governors amounts to the endorsement of their constituents.

The increasing alignment of state governors with President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s re-election effort raises a fundamental question about the connection between political authority and popular consent. The central issue requiring an answer is whether the governors are representing their people or merely seeking to preserve their own political positions.

There is no question that governors control significant political resources. They influence party structures, regulate access to state patronage, shape local political alliances, and exercise considerable influence over voter mobilisation. Their backing can give a presidential candidate access to a broad political network.

However, Peter Obi’s electoral performance in 2023 exposed the limits of political machinery. In 2023, Obi demonstrated that control of state institutions is not equivalent to securing popular consent.

A governor’s endorsement is a political declaration. It does not constitute a referendum on the performance of the government receiving that support.

For many governors, aligning themselves with the president may be a calculated choice driven by political survival, access to federal resources, party loyalty, and the need to protect their own political futures.

The Progressive Governors Forum has publicly pledged APC governors to support Tinubu’s re-election and oppose political arrangements that could weaken the party. This represents a coordinated political strategy rather than a definitive gauge of public sentiment.

The risk arises when political leaders confuse the reach of their political networks with the depth of their popular mandate.

Governors may mobilise party officials, political allies, and loyal supporters. They may also obtain endorsements from traditional and community leaders.

Yet none of these necessarily addresses the question facing millions of Nigerians: Has governance improved their lives?

Outside the corridors of power, citizens are dealing with the everyday consequences of rising living costs, economic uncertainty, insecurity, and reduced purchasing power.

These challenges are playing an increasingly important role in the political debate ahead of 2027, as voters compare political promises with their personal experiences.

For a struggling household, a governor’s political partnership with the president may carry much less weight than food prices, transportation costs, access to electricity, and the possibility of a secure future.

For an unemployed young person, political endorsements cannot replace economic opportunity.

For a farmer living with insecurity, party unity cannot provide personal safety.

This is where the governors’ political calculations may come into conflict with the expectations of the people.

While the political class may be bargaining over the future of its alliances, ordinary citizens are working to protect their families’ future.

That gap could emerge as a defining issue in the 2027 election.

A persistent weakness in Nigerian politics is the tendency to mistake the authority of elected officials for ownership of the citizens they represent.

Governors are elected to serve the people, not to dictate their political choices.

Citizens are not extensions of a governor’s political machinery. Their votes are not transferable assets, nor can their political loyalty be permanently secured through party structures or administrative influence.

Governors who support a presidential candidate are exercising their political rights. Citizens, for their part, retain the right to evaluate that candidate independently.

The true measure of political leadership is not the number of governors who support a candidate, but the number of citizens who freely choose to support that candidate.

The 2027 election may reveal the limitations of a political strategy based mainly on elite consensus.

A wide coalition of governors can project an image of political dominance, as seen with President Bola Tinubu. Ultimately, however, that image must be measured against the choices voters make. In truth, Tinubu understands that, despite the governors’ alliance, his prospects among dissatisfied voters remain extremely limited. The governors’ alliance is merely constructing an illusion of legitimacy to justify the unilateral deployment of state institutions against the will of the people.

Nigeria’s electoral history shows that political structures and voters’ choices do not always correspond precisely.

This is not to suggest that governors’ endorsements have no significance. Their influence can be considerable. However, that influence should not be mistaken for an automatic assurance of electoral backing.

In the same vein, the opposition must also recognise that public discontent does not invariably lead to electoral victory. Citizens dissatisfied with the government still require credible alternatives, effective organisation, and trust in the electoral process.

Peter Obi’s performance in 2023 clearly demonstrated that public sentiment is not a political asset that one officeholder can pass on to another. A governor may support a presidential candidate, but cannot claim to speak for every citizen in the state. In the end, the vote belongs to the people, and no political structure, however powerful, can replace the electorate’s consent.

But to harness it, an Anglo-Irish writer, philosopher, and politician, Edmund Burke, offers a direct message to Nigeria’s opposition if it genuinely seeks political power through the people’s consent: “When bad men combine, the good must associate; else they will fall, one by one, an unpitied sacrifice in a contemptible struggle.” God help us.

ABONYI is Editor @ Large. (First published in New Telegraph on Thursday October 15, 2026)