Maui Weather Forecast for October 15, 2026

Photo Credit: Travis Guthrie

West Side

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 77 to 88. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows 71 to 76. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 76 to 88. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Side

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs 78 to 90. Northeast winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 25 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows 70 to 75. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph.

Friday: Sunny and breezy. Highs 78 to 90. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

North Shore

Today: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers. Highs around 82 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 73 near the shore to around 59 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Friday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then numerous showers in the afternoon. Highs around 82 near the shore to around 70 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Gusts up to 40 mph in the morning. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Central Maui

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs 82 to 89. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows 70 to 75. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 82 to 89. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Upcountry

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 55 to 73. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers after midnight. Lows around 51 at the visitor center to around 49 at the summit. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Friday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 68 at the visitor center to around 70 at the summit. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

East Maui

Today: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers. Highs around 82 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 73 near the shore to around 59 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Friday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then numerous showers in the afternoon. Highs around 82 near the shore to around 70 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Gusts up to 40 mph in the morning. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Lanai City

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs 71 to 82. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows 65 to 71. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph.

Friday: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 80. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph.

Kaunakakai

Today: Sunny and breezy. Highs 69 to 89. Northeast winds up to 20 mph increasing to 15 to 25 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows 60 to 77. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph decreasing to up to 25 mph after midnight.

Friday: Sunny and breezy. Highs 77 to 88. Northeast winds up to 25 mph shifting to the east 15 to 25 mph in the afternoon.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

A high pressure system far northwest of the Hawaiian Islands will slowly drift from west to east over the next few days. This passing system will increase easterly trade winds into the moderate to breezy range lasting into the middle of next week. Brief pulses of enhanced showers are forecast with three passing easterly waves during this time period. Increasing shower trends will favor the windward mountain areas in the overnight to early morning hours starting Friday night and lingering into Tuesday morning. The strongest of these three waves will pass through the islands from Sunday night into Tuesday morning.

Discussion

The satellite imagery this morning shows a lingering band of unstable showers riding into the windward mountain slopes of each island on the trade winds. Periods of windward and mountain showers should be expected for the typical areas, more isolated showers are possible for drier leeward locations. Increased rainfall coverage in the morning forecast to account for the additional activity. These enhanced trade wind shower trends will diminish in coverage a few hours after sunrise due to the typical diurnal day time stability trends. Farther to the east, the satellite imagery verifies three short waves moving towards the islands within the easterly trade winds. These easterly waves will bring pulses of showers to all islands as they march across the island chain from Friday into early next week.

In the big picture, we continue to track a high pressure system currently located far northwest of the Hawaiian Islands drifting eastward over the next few days. This migratory high will increase easterly trade winds into the moderate to breezy range lasting into next week Tuesday.

Periods of wet weather remain in the weather forecast for this weekend as the three low level easterly waves will ride into the islands on the strengthening trade winds. Three pulses of higher shower coverage will favor Friday night, then late Saturday, and the last one unfolding from Sunday through Monday. The last of these easterly short wave troughs might be the strongest of the three with enhanced showers extending over the typically drier leeward areas at times. Forecasting rainfall amounts with these waves is always challenging due to variations in arrival timing and their intensity relative to each island.

A larger degree of uncertainty remains in the long range forecast from next week Wednesday onward. Both the American (GFS) and European (ECMWF) global forecast models continue to show diverging solutions for a passing middle latitude trough as the trough digs in and potentially approaches the islands from the northwest. The GFS model solution deepens this trough into a large cut off low north of Kauai and secondary upper low deepens northeast of the Big Island from Thursday into Saturday. The GFS shows us a wetter solution for sure as upper level cold core temperatures and additional divergence aloft will lift inversion heights and produce a surface trough likely producing southeasterly to southerly winds near the islands at some point. However, the ECMWF model presents a much more stable solution with two weaker upper lows north of the state. This european model solution will produce more stable conditions, as compared to the GFS model, with a typical trade wind shower pattern setup.

We will continue to closely monitor this long range forecast time period for potential island by island weather impacts as the model solutions begin to converge and the weather forecast becomes clearer over the next several days. Stay tuned.

Aviation

Trades will strengthen to breezy levels today as a ridge builds north of the islands. A batch of moisture moving from east to west over the islands is bringing brief MVFR conditions to Maui County and the Big Island from time to time. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected.

No AIRMETs are in effect, however as winds increase, AIRMET Tango may be needed for mechanical turbulence to the lee of the mountains.

Marine

Surface high pressure far northwest of the islands will move closer today, then build as it shifts north and then northeast of Hawaii on Friday. As a result, trade winds will gradually increase to fresh to locally strong levels over the next couple of days. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is in effect for the typically windy waters around Big Island and Maui beginning at 6 am this morning. A stronger surface high will arrive far north of the islands late Saturday and Sunday, likely increasing trade winds further, which may necessitate an expansion of the SCA to additional waters. Elevated trade winds will persist into early next week.

A small bump in the northwest swell will bring another peak of small surf to north and west-facing shores today that will fade tonight before a moderate north-northwest swell arrives Friday and continues through the weekend. Surf along north and west-facing shores should top out around seasonal average during the peak of the swell Friday afternoon and Saturday, then slowly decline late Saturday and Sunday as the dropping swell shifts more northerly and a smaller overlapping northwest swell arrives. Both swells will fade early next week.

A new long-periond south swell builds today and may push surf along south-facing shores back above seasonal average through Friday. The swell will slowly decline Saturday through early next week.

Surf along east-facing shores will begin to increase this afternoon into tonight as trade winds strengthen over the region. Rough trade wind swell will produce east shore surf above seasonal average Saturday through early next week.

Fire weather

A high pressure system far north of the islands drifting eastward, will produce moderate to breezy trade winds for the next few days. Minimum relative humidity levels will for most areas remain out of critical fire threshold ranges. The stronger trade winds will mainly impact higher elevation areas with even higher minimum humidity levels. Subsidence temperature inversion heights today near Maui and the Big Island will drop into the 6,000 to 7,000 foot elevation range this afternoon.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 6 PM HST Saturday for the typical windier waters and channels near Maui and the Big Island.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov