Big 12 football: What to make of Arizona State? Showdown at Texas Tech should offer clarity into “who ASU really is”

After a blowout victory, a blowout loss , seven days in London, a fourth-quarter meltdown, three wins, two losses, one change in play-callers and incalculable befuddlement, it’s time for Arizona State to reveal itself.

Pretender or contender.

Disappointment or inspiration.

Decline or ascent.

“This is the week we find out who the real Sun Devils are for 2026,” ESPN analyst Brock Osweiler told the Hotline earlier this week.

Osweiler has a firm handle on his alma mater. He is close with coach Kenny Dillingham and attended practices both last spring and this fall. And he called the Baylor game two weeks ago — an inexplicable loss (55-19) that left Dillingham filled with angst and searching for answers.

But like everyone else, Osweiler doesn’t know what to make of the Sun Devils (3-2) ahead of their trip to 10th-ranked Texas Tech on Saturday afternoon (12:30 p.m.).

“Texas Tech isn’t the big, bad monster we saw last year,” said Osweiler, a quarterback who played seven seasons in the NFL. “They are very gettable. If I’m Kenny, I’d challenge the guys to show to themselves and the fans who they are going to be this season.”

The Sun Devils have “shown flashes” of the performance level required to compete for the conference championship.

They were dominant in the opener against Morgan State and went point-for-point at Texas A&M for three quarters. From there, they managed the disruption of the London trip and edged Kansas.

But the fourth-quarter implosion in College Station and the face-plant against Baylor left Osweiler a tad bewildered.

“It’s hard to put a thumb on ASU,” he said. “I was like, ‘OK, Baylor is a coin-flip game.’ I’m thinking they will be fired up, and they were as flat as could be.

“I had the same reaction as Kenny. I can’t figure this out. The offensive line is solid. (Quarterback) Cutter Boley played well in the SEC (at Kentucky). I don’t think he has regressed, but he hasn’t gotten better.

“The wide receivers have all the potential in the world. They have a stable of running backs. But the offense has been mediocre.”

Dillingham’s frustration after the Baylor loss was such that he handed play-calling duties to offensive coordinator Marcus Arroyo, freeing him to focus on culture and attitude while there was still time to salvage the season.

“I want to have balance,” he explained . “I want to make sure our team has the singular-minded focus, passion and energy.”

The Big 12 has a slew of quality teams — five are ranked in this week’s AP Top 25 poll — but appears to lack a dynamo comparable to Texas Tech last season.

The Sun Devils have a path to the conference’s top tier. But because of the loss to Baylor, their margin for error is slim.

“The ceiling and the floor will be set by the quarterback,” Osweiler said.

“And I think, to this point, Cutter has been a bit underwhelming.”

Boley has thrown 12 touchdowns, but six came in the opener against Morgan State.

In his four matchups with FBS opponents (Texas A&M, Kansas, Baylor and Hawaii), Boley has six touchdowns, three interceptions, a completion percentage of just 59.5 and a passer rating of 124.1, which ranks 95th nationally.

(Dillingham recently dismissed the notion of a quarterback change, to veteran Mikey Keene.)

If anything, Texas Tech presents Boley with an opportunity to find his rhythm and confidence.

Unlike last year, when they fielded an overpowering defense, the Red Raiders are merely mediocre in numerous key statistical categories, including third-down stops and yards allowed per pass.

“It’s now or never,” Osweiler said. “It’s the week to find out who ASU really is.”

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